In 2010, Shanghai Port became the world's largest container port and has held that position ever since. This is a narrative familiar to those in the port industry, but there are many more stories to tell before and after that milestone. Since 2004, among the top 20 global ports, which one has never experienced a decline in container volume? Which port has seen the largest increase? Which ports have emerged onto the stage? And which ports have become the tears of the times?

In 2004, there were only five ports globally that surpassed 10 million TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units). Shanghai Port achieved a container throughput of 14.554 million TEUs, ranking third globally but still far behind Hong Kong Port (21.984 million TEUs) and Singapore Port (21.329 million TEUs). It also didn't have a significant lead over Shenzhen Port (13.659 million TEUs) and Busan Port (11.43 million TEUs) that followed closely behind. Nevertheless, the contours of winners and losers were beginning to emerge.

I. The Tears of the Times

Comparing 2004 and 2023, only Hong Kong Port and Kaohsiung Port have experienced declines in throughput, with respective drops of 34% and 9%. Until the 1990s, Hong Kong Port, Singapore Port, Busan Port, and Kaohsiung Port were all enjoying the dividends of rapid economic development and were dominant transshipment hubs in their respective regions. By 2004, they ranked globally as the 1st, 2nd, 5th, and 6th largest container ports, respectively.

The image is sourced from the "Hong Kong Port Master Plan 2020"

In 2004, Hong Kong Port continued to compete fiercely with Singapore Port. At the end of the year, the "Hong Kong Port Master Plan 2020" commissioned by the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government was freshly released. The report pointed out that the gaps between Hong Kong Port and Shenzhen Port in terms of service capabilities, productivity, and transportation links had narrowed. Meanwhile, the high cost of cross-border transportation to and from Hong Kong was an important reason for the loss of ocean-going cargoes at Hong Kong Port. However, the future still holds promise, as the report estimated that Hong Kong Port could reach 40.2 million TEUs by 2020. In addition, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government also commissioned a consulting firm to study the construction of Container Terminal 10.

The image is sourced from Hong Kong 01.

Despite contrary to people's wishes, Hong Kong Port has been experiencing sluggish growth since 2005, amid the shifting of industrial chains and the strong rise of other ports in the bay area. Since 2012, it has entered a downward trajectory. Between 2013 and 2023, Hong Kong Port experienced significant declines in important containerizable cargo categories such as manufactured goods, machinery, and transportation equipment. In 2023, Hong Kong Port handled 14.401 million TEUs, regressing to the level of 1997 (14.386 million TEUs) and barely remaining in the top 10 globally. The planned Container Terminal 10 never materialized, and even Container Terminal 9 has experienced vacancies. Singapore Port, once a rival, surpassed 20 million TEUs in the first half of this year alone. The Tuas Port, aiming to become the world's largest automated port, has celebrated its second anniversary of opening.

Kaohsiung Port, on the other hand, cannot even claim the title of the most struggling port. From 1993 to 1999, Kaohsiung Port consecutively ranked among the top 3 globally for seven years. In 1999, Maersk expressed interest in investing in a sixth container terminal in Kaohsiung Port, but the relocation of Hungmao Port Village was delayed indefinitely. Since the 21st century, Taiwan's industrial and export structure has become increasingly monolithic, and Kaohsiung Port has faced fierce competition from mainland coastal ports, resulting in a decrease in transshipment containers and a gradual decline in its ranking. In 2002 and 2003, Kaohsiung Port was successively surpassed by Shanghai Port and Shenzhen Port. In 2004, Maersk shifted its investment to Xiamen Songyu Container Terminal and terminated its lease in Kaohsiung Port in 2010, leading to a significant reduction in the number of main line mother ships calling at the port. In 2023, Kaohsiung Port handled 8.834 million TEUs, ranking only 17th globally. If new initiatives such as the opening of the Seventh Container Terminal in Kaohsiung cannot promptly boost handling volumes, the port risks falling out of the top 20.

Meanwhile, Xiamen Port surpassed 4.68 million TEUs in 2009, entering the global top 20 for the first time. Since then, its ranking has steadily risen, surpassing Kaohsiung Port in 2017 and now ranking 13th globally.

II. The pride of the times

Amidst the struggles of the two losers, mainland Chinese ports have risen meteorically. The prominent Shanghai Port and Shenzhen Port need no further introduction. Among the familiar faces on the list, the Chinese port with the largest increase over the past 20 years is Ningbo-Zhoushan Port, with a staggering 781% growth, followed by Guangzhou Port (574%), Tianjin Port (482%), Qingdao Port (460%), Xiamen Port (337%), Shanghai Port (238%), and Shenzhen Port (119%), all of which have exceeded 100% growth. Among other ports, only Tanjung Pelepas Port (161%) and Laem Chabang Port (145%) can compete with mainland China's growth.

In 2004, although Ningbo Port ranked only 17th globally, it could not be underestimated. Its container throughput growth rate had topped the country for six consecutive years, breaking through the dominance of Guangzhou, Dalian, Shanghai, Qingdao, and Tianjin. That year, it handled 4.005 million TEUs, a year-on-year increase of over 40%, crossing the 3 million and 4 million TEU milestones within a single year. In April of that year, Ningbo Port implemented a reform of its port management system, separating government functions from enterprise operations, and Ningbo Port Group Co., Ltd. was officially established. Li Linghong, the then-president, stated that Ningbo Port would invest more than 20 billion Chinese yuan to promote "secondary entrepreneurship." Integration was another major driver of Ningbo-Zhoushan Port's development. In 2006, the name "Ningbo-Zhoushan Port" was officially adopted, merging the two ports. In September 2015, Ningbo-Zhoushan Port Group Co., Ltd. was unveiled, marking the end of the short hyphen between Ningbo and Zhoushan. Ningbo-Zhoushan Port rapidly surpassed the milestones of 10 million, 20 million, and 30 million TEUs, and is now the world's only super-port with two individual container terminals handling over 10 million TEUs.

Ningbo-Zhoushan Port's growth rate is unparalleled, but between 2004 and 2009, Guangzhou Port even outshone it, with throughput growth reaching 200%, leaving all competitors behind. After the 2008 financial crisis, global trade suffered a significant blow. In 2009, almost all major ports could not avoid a decline in container volumes, except for two Chinese ports that bucked the trend: Guangzhou Port and Tianjin Port. They have thus become the only major ports that have continued to grow from 2004 to 2023. Interestingly, unlike other natural deepwater ports, Guangzhou Port was once a river port, while Tianjin Port is an artificial port.

In 2004, with the commissioning of the first phase of Nansha Port Area, Guangzhou Port entered the ranks of seaports and surpassed the 3 million TEU mark for the first time, initiating a period of rapid development. In 2007, the second phase of Nansha was completed, and in 2008, Guangzhou Port surpassed 10 million TEUs, becoming the third international megaport in mainland China to reach this milestone, ranking among the top 10 globally and surpassing Qingdao Port, Ningbo-Zhoushan Port, and Tianjin Port. In recent years, while northern ports have gained momentum, Shenzhen Port and Guangzhou Port, which have passed their high-speed development phases, continue to grow steadily.

III. The Rise and Fall of the Times

In 2003, the year before 2004, China's port container throughput reached 48 million TEUs, an increase of 11 million TEUs, surpassing the United States for the first time to become the world's largest. This was another sign of the rising tide of eastern ports and the declining influence of western ports globally. This trend has continued for 20 years. In 2004, three European and American ports were still among the top 10 container ports. However, by 2023, all of the top 10 ports have been taken over by Asian ports.

Between 2004 and 2023, the most remarkable growth rates were witnessed by the newly-ranked top 20 ports, Tangier Med Port and Taicang Port, in 2023. Tangier Med Port, which opened in 2007, experienced a staggering 9259% increase in container throughput from 2008 to 2023. Taicang Port, which handled 92,000 TEUs in 2004, recorded an impressive 8638% growth over the same period. Both ports are poised to surpass the 10 million TEU mark in the near future, further advancing their rankings.

The emergence of these new faces signals the decline of some established ones. Rotterdam and Los Angeles have seen their rankings slip, while Long Beach and New York/New Jersey have fluctuated in and out of the top 20. Bremen briefly made its way into the list, but by 2023, Hamburg Port, once a frequent top 10 contender, has also fallen out of the global top 20. Leveraging its status as Europe's largest rail port, Hamburg had long been a formidable competitor to Rotterdam, with throughput figures closely trailing behind. In 2007, Hamburg almost breached the 10 million TEU mark with 9.917 million TEUs handled. However, as a river port, Hamburg faces inherent limitations amidst the trend of vessel megalization. Rotterdam, with its early planning for Maasvlakte 2, and Antwerp, through expansion and consolidation, have surpassed Hamburg. Now, ports like Wilhelmshaven and Gdansk are also chipping away at Hamburg's share. Can MSC's involvement in HHLA's operations reverse this downward trend?

The evolution of the global port landscape is a long-term process. Once dominant, European and American ports have inevitably become the preceding waves in the changing tides. Since 2000, time has been a friend to mainland Chinese ports, as the global economic and trade center shifted eastward, China's economy soared, and intra-Asia container traffic grew at a much faster pace than other regions. Chinese mainland ports flourished in this favorable wind. After a quarter-century of leapfrog development, faced with trade frictions, industrial chain relocations, economic structural transformations, and other factors, are Chinese ports ready for the headwinds?